A new report by CONAP, Guatemala’s national parks agency, and the Wildlife Conservation Society, predicts an intense year to come for forest fires in northern Guatemala.
Each year, forest fires burn large sections of old-growth tropical forest in Petén, Guatemala’s northernmost province. Some fires begin naturally. Others are set by farmers, ranchers, or drug traffickers laying claim to the land. When the weather is dry, as it has been this year, the area is especially vulnerable to fires that spread out of control.
Scientists at the center that monitors forest fires in Petén have observed El Niño oceanic and weather patterns this year which bode poorly for Guatemala’s jungles. The center predicts El Niño weather events for at least the first four months of 2010.
During El Niño periods in 1997 and 2003, forest fires in the western half of Petén were severe, as shown in orange in the maps below. The report says that the conditions in 2010 are expected to be similar to 2003, when fires burned large tracts of northwestern Petén.

Oceanic El Niño Index (left) and areas burned by forest fires (right)





